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More than five decades in economic research. Balanced, independent and objective analysis and forecasts

Category: World economy

September 2023

Macroeconomic and fiscal developments in the first half of 2023

September 2023

Impacts of changes in the world economic environment (including consequences of Brexit) on the EU economy and the Hungarian economy and state budget (in Hungarian)

September 2022

Global economic trends and their impacts especially on the German economy, and consequences for Hungary’s economy and public finances

August 2021

Impacts of a changing world-economic environment (including Brexit) on the EU economy and on the Hungarian economy and state budget (in Hungarian)

August 2021

The impact of COVID-19, sustainability and socio-economic development on Hungary’s competitiveness

April - September 2020

Macroeconomic and public finance situation in 2019 and the first half of 2020 (in Hungarian)

September 2020

The Restart of European Economy and Its Impact on Central and Eastern Europe

September 2020

International economic trends in deteriorating global environment – consequences for Hungary

2018

Budgetary position in the light of the world economic conditions (in Hungarian)

2017

Overview of the mid-term processes of the world economy on the Hungarian economy (growth) and its impact on public finances

2016

The tendencies of trade in value-added in the OECD countries

2016

Realignment of fiscal processes in the major countries of the world economy, in the EU and Hungary in 2016

2015

Realignment of fiscal processes in major countries in the world economy, in the EU and Hungary in 2015

2015

Complex impact assessment of the trade and investment agreement between the US and the EU on the Hungarian economy

2014

Shifts in the global economy and their impact on Hungarian export market possibilities, the economic growth and the general government budget

2013

The role of the German economy in Hungarian economic performance

2013

Expert evaluation network: delivering policy analysis on the performance of cohesion policy 2007-2013

2010

Studies on the economic and labor market situation of border regions and their opportunities as well as on employment subsidies

Economic forecasts

2025
Fact
2026
Forecast
2027
Forecast
GDP 0.5% 2.0% 2.5%
Gross Fixed Capital Formation -2.8% 3.7% 5.5%
Industrial Production -3.2% 2.3% 3.5%
Gross Salaries 9.0% 9.5% 6.0%
Unemployment Rate* 4.4% 4.6% 4.4%
Current+Capital Account** 2.1% 1.5% 1.0%
General Government** -4.7% -6.5% -5.0%
Consumer Price Index* 4.4% 2.0% 2.6%
MNB Base Rate*** 6.5% 4.75% 3.75%
10-Year Yield*** 6.79% 5.0 4.5%
*annual average **in % of GDP ***at year-end

Kopint-Tárki commentary

01.09.2026. GDP: decelerating consumption growth, investments keep falling in Q2

According to the second estimate, both unadjusted and seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP grew by 1.7% in the second quarter of 2026. Against the previous quarter, the GDP was up 0.5%. Within the EU, the Hungarian growth performance was close to the median.
Private consumption decelerated somewhat, as expected. The reacceleration of the decline in fixed capital formation was unexpected, however. At the same time, the contribution of the changes in inventories to growth became even more pronounced. Final domestic use expanded at a respectable pace of 5%.
As for external trade, the export of goods expanded in the second quarter, after almost three years of uninterrupted decline. As a result, the downward effect of net exports on GDP growth became less extreme than in the previous quarter.
On the production side, industrial growth gathered some momentum, which offset the slowdown in services growth and the steep fall in drought-stricken agriculture.
Provided that investments start expanding in the second half of the year, due to the renewed inflow of EU funds and the changed institutional background, the GDP growth rate might reach 2% in 2026.

30.07.2026. GDP: modest growth continues in Q2

According to the first estimate, unadjusted GDP was up 1.7%, while the seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP expanded by 1.6% in the second quarter of 2026. Compared with the previous quarter, GDP grew by 0.4%. The second-quarter growth performance somewhat fell short of the average of analysts’ expectations.
On the production side, services are still the main drivers of economic growth, with industry contributing positively and agriculture contributing negatively to GDP growth. On the expenditure side, private consumption remained the primary growth factor. At the same time, net export probably continued to severely weigh on growth.
For the year as a whole, Kopint-Tárki still expects GDP to expand at a rate of around 2%. On the other hand, the mounting shocks generated by the Iran war may upend the baseline growth scenario.

02.06.2026. GDP: strong consumption growth, further deterioration in external position

According to the second estimate, both unadjusted and seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP growth rates accelerated to 1.7% in the first quarter of 2026. Against the previous quarter, the GDP was up 0.8%.
Private consumption accelerated markedly, with household consumption expenditures expanding by 5.5%. Due to this, and the extreme growth contribution from the changes in inventories, final domestic use grew by 6.6%. At the same time, the negative contribution by net export to GDP growth reached a level not seen in many years. On the production side, the main driver of the acceleration in GDP growth was the increase in the growth rate of services to above 2%.
GDP may grow by 2% in 2026, assuming a favorable scenario.

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